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#1 June 14, 2012 18:11:56

Chikot
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gunna
Chikot
Actually I am i in the process of learning this trading plan smaller details.
The overall plan is this: ema's 25 and 7 cross, I start looking for candlesticks based price action confirmation but keep my risk smaller, if risk is too big than I pass the trade.
My part of the plan that I will close 20% of my position once I am 1:1 R:R and then will close with smaller increments of 10% of position and moving stop to keep it behind some recent swing along the trend preferably 250-300 pips above below the price.
so, until cross I do nothing.

Ok, seems like you have the basics in place.

Next question would be - why wait for confirmation in the candlesticks? Are you trying to reduce the whipsaws? Would waiting for this confirmation affect your entry price compared vs the original entry? How would that affect your stop? Does this affect your size? If risk is too big, why not just trade smaller size?

This can be summarised as: Do you believe waiting for confirmation gives you a quantifiable edge and what gives you that confidence?

Regarding your profit targets - Based on quite a few backtests, they tend to improve system performance (MAR) quite a bit compared to trailing stops. However, you need to place them far enough away in order to give the trade room to run.

“Next question would be - why wait for confirmation in the candlesticks? Are you trying to reduce the whipsaws? Would waiting for this confirmation affect your entry price compared vs the original entry? How would that affect your stop? Does this affect your size? If risk is too big, why not just trade smaller size?”

Gunna, what you mean is why am I not entering right after ema's crossed and candle is above those crossed ema's. closed or still in process? I noticed that Holyspirit enter this way. I noticed also he had entries right above/ below such closed candles after ema's crossed hence I also look for such entries. My logic is that yes, I can be a fake and I have no idea where to put my stop. I need a place where I saw interest orders some top/ bottom of the swing to put my stop behind. also I would like to see a confirmation that there are long/ short orders there and probability that it is a real thing higher.
I wonder what Holyspirit would say on this. I have seen enough entries of his on this thread to be sure he obviously uses candlesticks for entries. I think I already trade small size considering that trades do not happen often. I am trying to keep stops as small as possible. 100-150 pips maximum otherwise I am afraid there will be no sense as I have no idea how far the trend might go. 100-150 looks like a reasonable stop.
it obviously depends upon each pair's volatility. usd/jpy I have only 70 pips stop but I was able to set it because price action told me where I can put it.

“This can be summarised as: Do you believe waiting for confirmation gives you a quantifiable edge and what gives you that confidence?”

Actually I have no idea. I cannot code EA to have it back tested. what do you thin, is there an edge or entry on ema's cross right after candle closses is a better way?
I only have some experience with price action. and this method gives me backbone on which I can lean. notice my swing account. no backbone and how things are going, LOL. also, it is MT4 no size control for me account is small so, I am moving back to Oanda.

“Regarding your profit targets - Based on quite a few backtests, they tend to improve system performance (MAR) quite a bit compared to trailing stops. However, you need to place them far enough away in order to give the trade room to run.”

those previous support/resistance levels actually always act like price magnet and can act as targets. I have got a good eye for this. It is only a matter of time when price gets there. I will put my limit orders to close parts of my positions over there in case if I am not present. otherwise I can do it manually if I am here. I will be around PC a lot pretty soon, so , this will not be a problem.
In any case I will always close 20% at 1:1 and move stop some 20 pips. why, because 1. take some profit and 2. reduce risk. if I risk 1% originally and close 20% of my position while also move stop 20 pips I will have risk about 0.5% now if I lose. it is anti whipsaw plan. i have not backtested it as I cannot but it seems like a reasonable idea. if the break is a true one it will not come back to my stop loss. if it is a fake, i reduced my risk.

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#2 June 14, 2012 18:14:34

Chikot
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I am watching 4 more pairs now for possible entries. usd/chf, usd/cad, cad/jpy and chf/jpy. no eur based pairs… no crosses yet but close. I would not go speculative on them as according to my plan I will only go speculative in 3 cases and these are not those 3.
I wonder, considering Greek election this Sunday. are you guys still in trades or all flat? It can turn ugly.

Edited Chikot (June 14, 2012 18:15:44)

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#3 June 14, 2012 18:31:10

gunna
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Chikot, look at the pdf attached to this link.

http://metastocktools.com/downloads/turtlerules.pdf

The rules themselves don't work that well anymore, but they are very precise. Also all the math you need for trend trading is in there. Part of what made them work, was that when a trade set itself up, there was no decision to be made. No decision = no hesitation.

I am not advocating that you set up strict rules like this. Rather, there should be a plan for each eventualilty. A favourite quote from the Market Wizards book “Don't worry about what the market is going to do. Worry about what you are going to do when it gets there.”

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#4 June 14, 2012 19:23:33

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I'm going to be flat going into the weekend simply because I don't know what to expect. I always trade with stops and I would have no idea where to put them. I don't want a 200 pip spike to take me out when I would have been right on the trade after the dust settles.

In addition, I have no problem with Oanda halting trading during this period. Nobody else offers weekend trading, so there is little room to complain. They are giving plenty of advance notice for traders to make adjustments for this atypical event where the outcome is unknown. Risk control is the name of the game whether you are dealer or trader.


"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting". Jesse Livermore

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#5 June 14, 2012 20:15:34

Chikot
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gunna
Chikot, look at the pdf attached to this link.

http://metastocktools.com/downloads/turtlerules.pdf

the rules themselves don't work that well anymore, but they are very precise. Also all the math you need for trend trading is in there. Part of what made them work, was that when a trade set itself up, there was no decision to be made. No decision = no hesitation.

I am not advocating that you set up strict rules like this. Rather, there should be a plan for each eventualilty. A favourite quote from the Market Wizards book “Don't worry about what the market is going to do. Worry about what you are going to do when it gets there.”

Gunna, I have read it quite a few times actually. Recently I had one guy code it for MT4 EA and backtested for 10+ years. it did not work well at least it is what he told me. I think I actually do not hesitate but I am looking for good entry. price action allows it. I also noticed that the best trends start with good price action after ema's cross. just checked gbp/jpy. there were crosses and huge candles 200-500 pips . then huge volatility in all directions and very big whipsaws, and trends did not last. I know that those turtles were entering each time 20-52 days high/low was broken. what I noticed Holyspirit does not enter right away on the cross. I saw trades opened some time after the cross and on good daily candles set ups. i think it is increases chances of success and reduces risk. usually immediate entry on the cross might be good after very clear failure like previous double/ triple top on daily… but I think trend trader should be already on that trade.
Almost forgot, I am looking for specific candles formation. already have a feel when it is good or not. actually it is easier on daily than on 4 H, especially when such a good basic rule like ema's cross exists.

Edited Chikot (June 14, 2012 20:17:45)

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#6 June 14, 2012 20:22:17

Chikot
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Astone999
I'm going to be flat going into the weekend simply because I don't know what to expect. I always trade with stops and I would have no idea where to put them. I don't want a 200 pip spike to take me out when I would have been right on the trade after the dust settles.

In addition, I have no problem with Oanda halting trading during this period. Nobody else offers weekend trading, so there is little room to complain. They are giving plenty of advance notice for traders to make adjustments for this atypical event where the outcome is unknown. Risk control is the name of the game whether you are dealer or trader.

You know Astone, i am currently fighting myself as to what to do. to leave trades running or close everything. I remember volatility of 2008-2009it can be 200 pips in 1 sec in all directions and all my trades but one are not at BE. I am not in any eur pair but still it will effect every pair. so, I wonder to leave trades over the weekend or close all of them tomorrow. kind of doe snot sit well with me trend trader reacting to news but my trades are still at risk and stops are not that far if market starts really spiking.

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#7 June 14, 2012 20:51:48

Chikot
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Ahem, so where were we?

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#8 June 14, 2012 21:34:59

Chikot
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#9 June 14, 2012 22:14:21

Astone999
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Chikot
Astone999
I'm going to be flat going into the weekend simply because I don't know what to expect. I always trade with stops and I would have no idea where to put them. I don't want a 200 pip spike to take me out when I would have been right on the trade after the dust settles.

In addition, I have no problem with Oanda halting trading during this period. Nobody else offers weekend trading, so there is little room to complain. They are giving plenty of advance notice for traders to make adjustments for this atypical event where the outcome is unknown. Risk control is the name of the game whether you are dealer or trader.

You know Astone, i am currently fighting myself as to what to do. to leave trades running or close everything. I remember volatility of 2008-2009it can be 200 pips in 1 sec in all directions and all my trades but one are not at BE. I am not in any eur pair but still it will effect every pair. so, I wonder to leave trades over the weekend or close all of them tomorrow. kind of doe snot sit well with me trend trader reacting to news but my trades are still at risk and stops are not that far if market starts really spiking.


Well. it's really not too hard to scroll down is it?

I know what you mean about taking off trades because of news and normally I avoid this with the longer term trading off daily charts where they may run for a month or longer. I guess in this case I have no feel as to what might happen and since Oanda is shutting down during this 9 hour period (highly unusual) I figured I might as well shut down as well. Maybe it's a non-event. Who knows? In either case I'll look to re-enter positions on a pullback to the fast EMA after the dust settles or re-position as appropriate.


"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting". Jesse Livermore

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#10 June 15, 2012 11:55:51

Chikot
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I closed part of my aud/usd long and moved stops on a/u and nzd/usd locked few pips as trades are well in profit. decided to protect myself. gbp/aud was up to 500+ pips tonight. I locked previously some 150+ pips and took of 40% of position. so the only trade at risk is aud/jpy. risk is covered by locked pips so I will leave trades running. seems like no risk. will be interesting to see how things will turn. usd/jpy got stopped. trend reversal.

Edited Chikot (June 15, 2012 11:57:40)

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